August 2023 Report
Balance
It’s already August and the market is balanced. Balance is a good thing. Balance means stability. Home sellers are hoping for continued appreciation, but home buyers are looking for value. Balance means both parties are getting what they want. I’ll explain below.
Lake Las Vegas by the Numbers
The trend line here suggests prices are on the rise. It’s a bit of a statistical lie. Prices have risen, this much is true, but this is a chart that covers nearly a year and a half of sales.
This is the first seven months of 2023. The trend line is flat, or leaning negative. I don’t think it is possible for a trend line to be perfectly flat. Normal variability forbids a perfectly flat trend line. If you are a potential home seller looking for appreciation it is to be found in the previous chart. This chart is showing you that the 19% market appreciation from the prior chart has been locked in for the past seven months.
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We’re still holding steady with a decent, but not record breaking pace of around 25 sales per month. The majority of these sales represent home sellers who have benefitted from the rapid appreciation that occurred over the past few years.
With the exception of June, we’re starting to see pending sales closing the gap with new listings.
This is my point in one chart. Buyers feel confident they can negotiate and find value and sellers know they are going to take home a decent net at closing. A balanced market is a comfortable market for both parties.
Cash is still hovering around 50%, but as I have mentioned many buyers who utilize loans make very large down payments to keep their loan payments reasonable.
Final Thoughts
As I mentioned above, a balanced market is a comfortable market. When we were seeing rapid price appreciation in 2021 and 2022 we also saw fed up buyers walking away from the market. Those buyers may feel more confident now that they have some ability to negotiate. Sellers need not fear negotiation. The home value appreciation of the last decade has made it possible for many sellers to come away with a decent net and they can get it because there are confident buyers out there.
Thank you,
Robin & Dave
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